AU

Yes, those are retail traders, not institutions. You can actually tell from the data. Also, Treasury yields have come down. All Trump has to do is make a TACO move and let oil prices come down, and we could see a massive relief rally driven by a short squeeze. Shorts need to make sure their stops are in place. I’ll think about whether to buy the dip tomorrow, because if Trump makes a TACO move over the weekend or next Monday, we could see a violent rebound.

I think #SPX 7650 should see a bounce, probably within the first 30 minutes after the US market opens. 7650 is currently the level with the largest market maker buy hedging demand. If the bounce doesn't happen within those 30 minutes, the setup probably won't work. For $BTC , I'm not touching it until I see spot inflows. Without spot inflows, perps are driving the price action, making the market unstable and prone to sharp moves in both directions. Strive and others might start buying BTC after the US market opens, but there's no need to rush. Scaling in gradually is fine. There are still plenty of risks to hedge against, and even if the market moves higher, there will likely be multiple pullbacks and retests along the way. Some altcoins are starting to show strength, mainly privacy coins, because of the PHP incident. If you want to hedge risk while avoiding FOMO, you could rotate some capital into spot positions in $XMR , $NEAR , and $ZEC , while also buying cybersecurity stocks like $CRWD , $NET , and $PANW . I've already bought some of those stocks. I'll stick to short term swings before the FOMC meeting and only deploy my full capital afterward. I'm mainly concerned about the risk of a black swan event during this period. Last time, I deployed all my capital at once, then a series of unexpected events left me stuck in positions and caused me a lot of anxiety. This time, I'm going to be more conservative.

Pretty much everything has played out exactly as expected. Meta is the only missing piece. SPX rallied and VIX fell ahead of GTC, another Wall Street script

The 10Y Treasury yield could fall below 5% in the coming days. If that happens, the anticipated major selloff may not materialize, and the stock market could rebound. BTC's selling momentum has weakened, but there is still no clear absorption or large buy orders coming in. A news event could change the picture again in the meantime, so we need to wait. It's better to stay on the sidelines than to overtrade and make mistakes. Timing is crucial. I've been mentally exhausted and anxious over the past few days, so I'd rather sit this one out. Crypto is still in a bull market. I expect it to consolidate until the FOMC meeting or the midterm elections, then break out decisively. Institutions have clearly finished building their positions and are just waiting for the right news. Big money doesn't bet on uncertainty. Once that uncertainty is resolved, capital will pour in aggressively. That's why, historically, you've seen both stocks and crypto rally once uncertainty clears, whether the uncertainty was about rate hikes or war.

If VIX makes a new high today and SPX continues to sell off sharply, defensive stocks won't be spared, whether they're in software, hardware, cybersecurity, biotech, or privacy related sectors. If you're going to buy today, wait until after the US market opens. I'd recommend staying out altogether because it's very easy to lose money in these conditions. I shorted BTC at 86K and SOXL at 140 before reversing and buying the dip, only to get trapped and take losses. Then a lot of news came out, making it very easy to chase rallies and sell off in panic. I'd recommend staying out around the FOMC meeting or sticking to intraday trading only.

TSLA hit my stop loss. I also sold the semiconductor stocks I bought at last Thursday’s low, and sold $BTC . I’ve shorted all the altcoins that had been relatively strong before. NQ and SPX will probably also drop at the US market open today. Even if MSTR and IBIT remain strong after the open, and even if Strive keeps aggressively buying BTC, they will probably still follow #SPX lower. The market will likely continue to chop until the FOMC, with more war headlines likely to emerge in between and push oil prices higher again. If BTC keeps moving sideways like this, altcoins definitely won’t hold up. Black Thursday. Crypto is still in a bull market, but it needs to continue consolidating. I need to lower my average entry price

I'm offline now. The critical moments yesterday and today are already over. Tomorrow, Thursday, will only determine the speed and how long it takes to reach our targets. If we hold here and consolidate, it means we will reach 86K, 88K, and 90K soon. Even if we drop tomorrow, it only means it will take longer to reach those targets. $BTC

Retails seem to be buying the dip in BTC here, not institutions. Gold ’s price action also looks very dangerous, and gold will most likely fall below 4,000 again. Remember when gold last suffered a major selloff

Iran uses high oil prices to pressure Trump. Trump knows he is destined to lose the midterm elections, so he stops TACO. Trump shorts the market. Black Thursday, Black Friday, Black Monday, until the market rebounds after the FOMC decides not to hike rates. The Democrats take power, geopolitical risks ease, oil prices fall, and stocks rally.

I've seen quite a few large call options trades in $TSLA. Combined with the SpaceX angle, earnings sentiment looks fairly bullish, so I took a small speculative position. Maybe we should trust Elon one more time